Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 82993.037620 87600.017767 92204.763905 97149.339633 102305.213353 107519.561488 113188.291660
2025-01-05 75525.325297 82589.416157 89846.988163 97850.324149 106417.961827 115304.159475 125206.954855
2025-01-12 69750.371540 78454.252204 87593.286802 97883.394946 109125.274546 121012.313933 134509.902043
2025-01-19 65130.480339 75025.875477 85608.134451 97731.922911 111201.514157 125671.045488 142353.185078
2025-01-26 62654.033404 73659.659242 85614.201610 99512.466198 115172.467649 132217.717839 152118.350899
2025-02-02 60577.978927 72537.272476 85710.544272 101226.886199 118929.117709 138421.222789 161430.257376
2025-02-09 58222.317872 70925.585134 85102.216870 102003.912414 121509.481003 143216.230779 169098.034825
2025-02-16 55587.697993 68840.113082 83814.967154 101874.701329 122943.846306 146625.130790 175127.275549
2025-02-23 53590.081607 67389.223920 83162.805982 102388.281063 125041.304044 150734.969403 181923.581838
2025-03-02 51527.424031 65760.126263 82211.106866 102466.682094 126560.574513 154124.975067 187854.834061
2025-03-09 50280.278196 65043.575438 82282.034760 103703.965574 129404.675622 159036.625910 195559.623052
2025-03-16 48212.322388 63244.450075 80980.820506 103230.356219 130157.938781 161449.835449 200301.498179
2025-03-23 47267.679441 62814.062204 81335.309127 104772.444721 133365.586948 166833.215584 208663.851381
2025-03-30 46067.341240 62021.002366 81212.332360 105709.036704 135833.744222 171346.325918 216025.434441
2025-04-06 44518.591391 60731.464434 80426.277468 105786.030913 137221.824142 174544.653770 221809.164423
2025-04-13 42955.069190 59365.846999 79493.816316 105633.882008 138290.130485 177331.167086 227085.706291
2025-04-20 42452.845068 59335.646743 80215.172882 107531.255875 141884.835148 183198.258109 236133.269796
2025-04-27 41953.005906 59282.739476 80888.478142 109356.316943 145389.184112 188968.792594 245096.788908
2025-05-04 41035.211465 58648.631570 80792.115049 110183.264954 147631.412250 193187.050834 252170.911887
2025-05-11 39741.621015 57476.395610 79966.716939 110045.794915 148632.639861 195855.365482 257330.101576
2025-05-18 38806.538346 56750.727996 79692.058390 110592.278281 150484.370075 199575.894780 263804.299422
2025-05-25 37722.249970 55790.301644 79080.604285 110675.699655 151725.487349 202523.318470 269317.911998
2025-06-01 37195.426494 55567.446672 79423.577754 111992.094869 154545.780916 207463.673590 277353.557605